Some of you know
about this, some of you don't. Either way I'm going
to put radically different slants on this concept.
As you read what follows, I want you to keep certain
ideas in your mind. I also suggest you read the
following not once, but several times. If you have
children, print this and give it to them to read.
If they master this, they’ll become rich.
If they don't, it’s the difference between
being the entrepreneur and the worker drawing a
paycheck.
The first idea
to remember is that computers are composed of both
hardware and software. The software can be changed.
The hardware is something you live with, until you're
ready to throw it out and buy another computer.
The analogy I want to use for a computer is a human
being. The hardware is our bodies and our minds.
What we have to start out with is what we live with.
If you are destined to grow to be six feet tall,
you are not going to change that and become seven
feet tall. You live with it.
Our minds are both hardwired and soft
wired. We can change the software. How we think
about things, our prejudices, our attitudes, and
our mind sets, this can all be changed and worked
with. Certain things cannot be change. You either
have a gift for mathematics and languages or you
don't. Certainly, whatever level of gift you have
can be augmented and worked with, but if you don't
have Einstein's gift for math, that's just the way
it is.
Now what does this have to do with
the magic of compounding? And what is the magic
of compounding by the way. The magic of compounding
very simply is the difference between an arithmetic
progression and a geometric progression.
The arithmetic progression goes like
this: 2,4,6,8,10,12,14. The geometric progression
or an exponential progression likes this: 2,4,16,32,64
The difference is everything in investing.
When I am done, you will truly understand the magic
of compounding, you will become a believer, and
you will astound all your friends.
The reason why I talked about the
computer analogy is because I believe as human beings
we are hardwired in our brains. Our brains compel
us to think about progressions as being simple arithmetic
ones. An arithmetic progression is simple. You know
2,4,6,8,10, or 3,6,9,12,15. I also believe that
Warren Buffet is hardwired to think geometrically.
That is why he is the world's greatest investor.
So let's put it together. Now, I want
you and your children to solve the following puzzle.
What would you rather have someone give you; a million
dollars, or a penny a day and the right to have
that penny doubled every day for a month The answer
appears at the end of this article under PUZZLE.
I'm assuming you looked at the answer.
Amazing, is it not? This is why the wealthiest guy
I know who is a member of the Forbes 400, has always
told me," One of the dumbest things you can
do with money is spend it." He puts everything
into investments. Where he makes his mistake is
he does not live a balanced life.
I have received e-mail from Oscar
B. in Dayton, Ohio. Oscar must have several billion
dollars in cash by now. He also drove a 20-year-old
station wagon when I knew him. He could afford to
buy 5% of General Motors and he's driving a 20-year-old
station wagon. It shows how he values money.
At the same time, this behavior does
not lead to a balanced life.
Have you ever noticed how mutual funds
that have been around for decades tell you the following?
If you had placed $10,000 with us in 1981, you would
have $96,000 today. It's no big deal. It's the magic
of compounding, not the magic of their thinking.
Or they will say; assuming dividends and capital
gains are reinvested. This is lunacy. People have
to pay taxes; they can't pay taxes with capital
gains. They have to pay taxes with cash. This is
why mutual funds lie when they give you their returns.
Every one of them assumes you reinvest the dividends
and capital gains. Where are you supposed to get
the cash from to pay your tax bill if not from the
capital gains themselves, thus lessening your re-investment?
Now, back to Warren Buffet. He is
the most successful investor in the world because
he believes in the magic of compounding heart. He
also executes on the concept. I am going to get
these numbers wrong, but it doesn’t matter,
you'll get the concept. I'm doing the numbers from
memory. Buffet started a partnership way back when.
He had a number of limited partners invest with
him and he took a percentage of the gains. In the
late 60s, early 1970's he terminated the partnership
with his famous letter, "When you no longer
understand the way the game is played, it's time
to leave the game." I'm paraphrasing, even
though it's in quotes.
In 1974, when the bear market bottomed,
it might have been early 1975, he started another
raise. Then came Berkshire Hathaway. Buffet took
about $ 100 million out of that first partnership
for himself. So he was working with $100 million,
keep that in mind.
Do you know the rule of 72? If you
don't you should memorize it. It's easy to work
with. If you get a 12% return on your money and
you want to know how long it will take your money
to double, it's simple.
Take 72 and divide by 12. The answer
is 6 years. If you get 6% on your money, it's 72
divided by 6 or 12 years. If you get 9 % on your
money, it's 72 divided by 9 or 8 years. Buffet since
the 1970's has been getting a compounded (remember
that means exponential) growth rate of about 22
to 24%. That means 72 divided by 22 is 3.27 years,
or he doubles his money every 3-years 4-months.
Since he's at it about 25 years with
that hundred million he had to play with, that means
he's doubled his original $100 million about seven
times. Remember 25 years dividend by a double every
3 years and 4 months (25 divided by 3.4=7.69). Let's
go with seven doubles.
Remember he's not making 7-times his
money with the $100 million (that would be an arithmetic
progression) he's making 7-doubles (a geometric
or compounded progression).
Let's show the difference.
Warren Buffet's Geometric Progression
Starting Dollar Amount: 100 million Time Periods
Involved: 7 times (3-year 4-month periods)
Period Compounded (Exponential $)
0 starting point 100,000,000
1 - 3 years 4months later 200,000,000
2 - 6 years 8months later 400,000,000
3 - 10 years 8 months later 800,000,000
4 - 13 years 4 months later 1,600,000,000
5 - 16 years 8 months later 3,200,000,000
6 - 20 years later 6,400,000,000
7 - 23 years 4 months later 12,800,000,000
Buffet I believe is worth about $15
billion; it could be $20 billion at this point.
It does not matter. He is somewhere in his eighth
double. This is the magic of compounding.
You'll also notice he never sells.
That means his money is doubling every 3-years 4-
months with no tax consequences. He is taxed when
he sells, only when he sells. The money compounds
until he dies and then it's at a capital gain rate
in the far, distant future. He could not sell if
he wanted to. Emotionally, he can't bring himself
to stop the compounding effect.
Teach your children
this technique and you will have very rich children.
In stocks I show you how to make money at the bottom,
by buying depressed securities that are going to
go right back, thus you make a fortune as they rocket
off the bottom. In the future, I will also show
you how to make money with the Warren Buffet concept
or classical Graham and Dodd analysis. In the mean
time, good luck with understanding the magic of
compounding.
PUZZLE: Answer
On the one hand:
On the other hand:
$ 1,000,000 Day Amount
1 $ .01
2 $ .02
3 $ .04
4 $ .08
5 $ .16
6 $ .32
7 $ .64
8 $ 1.28
Hey folks, it's
day eight and I am up to $1.28. I only have a month;
maybe I am better off by taking the one shot deal,
a million dollars. Let's see what happens:
Day Amount Day
Amount
9 $ 2.5610 $ 5.12
11 10.24 12 20.48
13 40.96 14 81.82
15 163.8416 327.68
17 655.36 18 1,310.72
19 2,621.44 20 5,242.88
Incidentally,
did any of you ask what month of the year we're
in? Is it February with 28 days, or leap year with
29 days, or September with 30 days, or October with
31 days? You should realize, it's going to make
a difference. Do you want the million dollars, ask
your kids by the way? Which would they choose?
Let's continue:
Day Amount
21 $ 10485.76
22 20,971.52
23 41,943.04
24 83,886.08
25 167,772.16
26 335,544.32
27 671,088.64
28 1,342,177.28
29 2,684,354.56
30 5,368,709.12
31 10,737,418.24
Leap year compounding
wins, if I give you October with 30 days, you make
over $5,000,000. With December, it's over $10,000,000.
I have never met the child, who didn't leap for
the $1,000,000 on day one.
This is because
we think arithmetically, not exponentially. Start
thinking exponentially, Make Money Now.
reprint permission
from webtrading.com